Power coal rebound resistance will continue to increase-antik

By , May 3, 2018 1:31 am

Thermal coal rebound resistance will continue to increase recently, the domestic industrial products market on the supply side, the reform is expected to stimulate the real estate policy and financial support under the long continued inflow of retaliatory rebound, ahead of overdraft at the beginning of the March "national NPC and CPPCC market, iron ore, coke, coking coal, steel futures prices have a more substantial rise. In such a prosperous market atmosphere, the steam coal futures also rose sharply. However, in the coal futures prices have hit a new high at the same time, technology began to appear signs of departure from the top, with the expected future prices continue upward, the rebound resistance will continue to increase. Large coal prices continue to rise in February 24th or the Bohai thermal coal price index closed at 381 yuan per ton, in the reporting period (February 17, 2016 to February 23rd) rose 1 yuan per ton compared with the previous reporting period. From January 13th to the reporting period, the price index has risen for five consecutive reporting periods, up 10 tons per ton. Near the end of 2, to the large coal enterprises to determine the March power coal sales price window, the market atmosphere has been warming up. On the weekend there have been market rumors, from the beginning of the end of February, Shenhua 5000 card will be the first power coal price per ton, increase of not less than 10 yuan, the main reason is the price of the port supply shortage. So far, the rumors have not yet been determined. However, the current Shenhua coal stagnation period is more serious. Although coal spot prices overall upward trend, but the sluggish downstream demand, the port of shipment operation is free, the actual turnover of coal is relatively thin, not enough to support coal prices continued to rise. As of February 24th, CBCFI coal price index fell to 17.7 yuan from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou freight ton, refresh the lowest year record; the number of ship anchorage of Qinhuangdao port 31 ships, 8 ships to Hong Kong forecast. Power coal production capacity is still surplus, two sessions convened soon, supply side reform related policy has become the focus of attention in the coal industry. According to internal staff revealed that the Xishan coal, Shanxi coking coal group reorientation diversion is about to enter the implementation phase, the Xishan coal has been released transfer triage assessment indicators, assessment index of super million, the other branch index reorientation diversion will be launched soon. In addition, affected by NPC and CPPCC during production safety inspection efforts to increase the coal mine has not yet started to resume production rate increase, Erdos and Yulin container station coal inventories remain low. However, the historical experience shows that the supply side reform will be a long-term process, and the potential supply of coal is still huge. On the other hand, with the high energy consuming industries such as iron and steel, building materials speeding up the production capacity, the domestic coal demand will further decline. The overall demand decline of coal caused by multiple factors, not the coal industry to complete the supply side reform, can solve the problem of oversupply in the coal market. Although the funds lack the power to do more from the start on Thursday, thermal coal futures basic to rebound, but not always the main long Masukura phenomenon, but the short Masukura trend. As of 3 p.m. on February 24th, the total position of the top 5 contracts for power coal 1605 contracts decreased by 1850 from February 19th to (last Friday), and the price of hand to hand was 17849.

动力煤 反弹阻力将不断增大   近期,国内工业品市场在供给侧改革预期、房地产刺激政策和多头资金持续流入的支持下报复性反弹,提前透支3月初的“全国两会行情”,铁矿石、焦炭、焦煤、螺纹钢期货价格均有较大幅度的上涨。在如此红火的市场氛围下,动力煤期货亦大幅跟涨。然而,在动力煤期货价格屡创年内新高的同时,技术面开始出现顶背离迹象,预计未来随着价格继续上行,盘面反弹阻力将不断增大。   大型煤企或继续涨价   2月24日环渤海动力煤价格指数报收于381元 吨,本报告期(2016年2月17日至2月23日)比前一报告期上涨1元 吨。从1月13日到本报告期,价格指数已经连续五个报告期上涨,累计上涨10元 吨。   临近2月末,到了大型煤炭企业确定3月份动力煤销售价格的时间窗口,市场的观望气氛有所升温。上周末曾有市场传言,从2月底开始,神华5000卡动力煤将率先涨价,每吨上涨幅度不低于10元,涨价的主要理由是港口货源不足。到目前为止,上述传言仍未得到确定。不过,目前神华煤滞期现象比较严重。   尽管动力煤现货价格整体保持上升态势,但是下游需求疲软,港口装运作业较清闲,动力煤实际成交相对清淡,不足以支撑煤价持续上涨。截至2月24日,CBCFI煤炭运价指数秦皇岛至广州运价跌至17.7元 吨,刷新年内最低纪录;秦皇岛港锚地船舶数量31艘,预报到港8艘。   动力煤产能依然过剩   两会召开在即,供给侧改革相关政策成为煤炭行业的关注焦点。据西山煤电内部职工透露,山西焦煤集团转岗分流即将进入实施阶段,西山煤电已经出炉转岗分流考核指标,考核指标超万人,其他分公司转岗分流指标也将陆续出台。此外,受两会期间安全生产检查力度加大的影响,煤矿开工复产率也尚未大幅提高,鄂尔多斯、榆林等集装站煤炭库存维持低位。   然而,历史经验表明,供给侧改革将是一个长期过程,目前煤炭潜在供给量依然庞大。另一方面,随着钢铁、建材等高耗能行业加速去产能,国内煤炭需求将进一步下滑。多重因素造成的煤炭整体需求下滑,并非煤炭行业顺利完成供给侧改革就可以解决煤炭市场供大于求的问题。   资金面做多力量不足   尽管从上周四开始,动力煤期货基本以反弹走势为主,但是主力多头始终没有大幅增仓的现象,反而是空头逆势增仓。截至2月24日下午3时,动力煤1605合约多头前5名合计持仓量较2月19日(上周五)减少1850手至17849手,空头前5名合计持仓量较2月19日(上周五)增加1614手至23530手。前5名合计持有的净空单数量较2月19日(上周五)大增156%,至5681手。   由此可见,动力煤期货市场做多力量明显减弱,价格上涨也没有吸引新增资金入场,相比之下,短线做空资金较为活跃。   综上所述,动力煤期货近几日的反弹不足以表明动力煤市场将迎来向上突破的趋势性上涨行情,预计短期内动力煤期货将以区间振荡为主。两会结束之后,煤炭行业去产能或进入政策面或消息面的真空期,投机资金炒作“去产能”概念的风险逐渐累积,盘面回调压力将增大。   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。相关的主题文章:

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