Citigroup clock the European and American market is only one step away from collapse 辽宁大学就业网

By , November 13, 2017 7:30 am

"Citi clock": the European market collapse distance is only a step away at last month’s latest report shows that both the United States and the eurozone have been entered into the fourth stage’s clock ". This stage is seen as a "breakdown clock" – both credit and stock markets are showing a downward trend. According to Citigroup Strategy Analyst Robert Buckland, the "Citi clock" can be divided into four stages. The first stage is the end of recession. With the decline in interest rates, credit has begun to recover, but the stock market is still under pressure. The second stage can be seen as a bull market, with both credit and stock markets strong. In the third stage, although the stock market still has credit expansion in stride forward singing militant songs, but narrowed. This stage is easy to see the emergence of bubbles. In the fourth stage, because of the credit crunch, the stock market eventually collapsed, which eventually led to the recession. In general, the sharp decline in corporate profits and the deterioration of the balance sheet are obvious features after this stage. Citigroup pointed out that the euro zone and the United States are running to the fourth stage, and the United States is faster than the euro zone. Compared to the Citi clock, Merrill’s clock is more familiar with the market. Merrill Lynch clock is also divided into four stages. 1, the recession phase (economic downturn, downward inflation) inflation pressure drops, increasingly loose monetary policy, the most outstanding bonds, with the economy bottoming expectations gradually formed, and gradually increase the attractiveness of the stock. In terms of overall performance, bond > cash > stock > bulk commodities. 2, the recovery phase (economic upward, downward inflation) at this stage because of greater elasticity of stock on the economy, the relative bonds and cash have significant excess returns, the stock bond of > > > cash commodities. The 3 stage (economic overheating, inflation upward, upward) at this stage, rising inflation has increased the opportunity cost of holding cash, may be out of the interest rate policy reduces the attractiveness of bonds, stock configuration value is relatively strong, and the goods will be significantly bullish. In general, bulk commodities > stock > cash bonds. 4, the stage of stagnation (downward inflation) cash yields increase, cash wise, impact the economic downturn on corporate earnings will pose a negative impact on the stock, bonds relative stock yields increase, cash bond > > commodity stocks. Wall Street knowledge previously reported, CITIC Securities believes that the global economy has changed into a recession and recovery period of two levels of the situation from the four cycle of the four seasons ". This means that the global "asset shortage" pattern will not change in 2016, and the central bank policy will be difficult to turn from loose to tight. Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion

“花旗时钟”:欧美市场距离崩溃仅一步之遥   花旗上月最新报告显示,无论美国还是欧元区,都已经进入到“花旗时钟”的第四阶段。这一阶段被视为“崩溃时钟――信贷和股市都呈现衰退型下降趋势。   按照花旗策略分析师Robert Buckland的说法,“花旗时钟”可以分为四个阶段。   第一阶段是衰退的终结。随着利率的下滑,信贷开始复苏,但是股市依然承压。   第二阶段则可以视为牛市阶段,信贷和股市都表现强劲。   第三阶段中,虽然股市依然高歌猛进,但是信贷扩张却在收窄。这一阶段很容易见到泡沫的出现。   在第四阶段,由于信贷收缩,股市也最终出现崩盘,最终导致衰退出现。通常来说,企业盈利大幅下滑和资产负债表恶化是该阶段后比较明显的特征。   花旗指出,欧元区和美国都在向第四阶段运行,而美国的步伐比欧元区要更快。   相较于花旗时钟,美林时钟更被市场所熟知。美林时钟同样分为四个阶段。   1、衰退阶段(经济下行,通胀下行) 通胀压力下降,货币政策趋松,债券表现最突出,随着经济即将见底的预期逐步形成,股票的吸引力逐步增强。就整体表现而言,债券>现金>股票>大宗商品。   2、复苏阶段(经济上行,通胀下行) 此阶段由于股票对经济的弹性更大,其相对债券和现金具备明显超额收益,即股票>债券>现金>大宗商品。   3、过热阶段(经济上行,通胀上行) 在此阶段,通胀上升增加了持有现金的机会成本,可能出台的加息政策降低了债券的吸引力,股票的配置价值相对较强,而商品则将明显走牛。总的来说,大宗商品>股票>现金 债券。   4、滞胀阶段(经济下行,通胀上行) 现金收益率提高,持有现金最明智,经济下行对企业盈利的冲击 将对股票构成负面影响,债券相对股票的收益率提高,即现金>债券> 大宗商品 股票。   华尔街见闻此前报道,中信证券认为,全球经济已经从“四季分明”的四周期变动走入一个衰退和复苏两周期徘徊的局面。这意味着2016 年全球“资产荒”格局不会改变,央行政策也难从宽松转向紧缩。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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